Everyone is talking about a six-figure Bitcoin (BTC) price now that the digital asset has broken out of its multi-month downtrend and confirmed that a bullish trend is in play. If Bitcoin happens to enter a parabolic move toward $110,000, that would finally match PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model prediction. According to the pseudonymous analyst, the scarcity and valuation of gold and other precious metals and “Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crackdown” are a few of the factors responsible for the past five months of 50% or higher inaccuracy in the model.Bulls’ hopes mostly cling to an exchange-traded fund being approved by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Currently, there are multiple requests pending review between Oct. 18 and Nov. 1, but the regulator could postpone its final decision.Oct. 15’s $830 million options expiry was largely impacted by the 20% price rally initiated on Oct. 4, which most likely eliminated 92% of the put (sell) options.Bitcoin price on Coinbase in USD. Source: TradingViewThe aftermath of China’s mining crackdown was an important event that might have fueled investor sentiment, and research shows the U.S. accounting for 35.4% of the Bitcoin hash rate. Furthermore, as Cointelegraph reported, the U.S. states of Texas and Ohio are also expected to receive additional large-scale Bitcoin mining centers, which will effectively boost the U.S. crypto market share even higher.The Oct. 8 expiry was profitable for bullsFollowing last week’s $370 million estimated net profit from the BTC options expiry, bulls had more firepower, and this is evident in this Friday’s $820 million expiry. This advantage explains why the call (buy) options open interest is 43% larger than the neutral-to-bearish put options.Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Oct. 15. Source: BybtAs the above data shows, bears placed $335 million in bets for Friday’s expiry, but it appears that they were caught by surprise, as 92% of the put (sell) options are likely to become worthless.In other words, if Bitcoin remains above $56,000 on Oct. 15, only $36 million worth of neutral-to-bearish put options will be activated on Friday’s 8:00 am UTC expiry.Bulls have a reason to push BTC price above $58,000Below are the four likeliest scenarios for Oct. 15’s expiry. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry price, the quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts becoming active varies:Between $52,000 and $54,000: 3,140 calls vs. 2,110 puts. The net result is $55 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.Between $54,000 and $56,000: 3,700 calls vs. 1,240 puts. The net result is $130 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.Between $56,000 and $58,000: 4,850 calls vs. 680 puts. The net result is $235 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.Above $58,000: 6,230 calls vs. 190 puts. The net result is complete dominance, with bulls profiting $350 million.This raw estimate considers call options being exclusively used in bullish bets and put options in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, investors might have used a more complex strategy that typically involves different expiry dates.Bears need a 7% price correction to reduce their lossIn every scenario, bulls have absolute control of this Friday’s expiry, and there are a handful of reasons for them to keep the price above $56,000. On the other hand, bears need a 7% negative move below $54,000 to avoid a loss of $235 million or higher.Nevertheless, traders must consider that during bull runs, the amount of effort a seller needs to pressure the price is immense and usually ineffective. Analytics point to a considerable advantage from call (buy) options, fueling even more bullish bets next week.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
- Bitcoin (BTC)
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- Blockware Solutions
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- BTC price model
- Illiquid Supply Floor
- Markets and Prices
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- stock to flow
- stock-to-flow (S2F)
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- Will Clemente
Bitcoin prices have been better after the second week of September, hovering around $46.5K to $48.5K per unit during the last two days. Meanwhile, bitcoin proponents still believe a significant second-leg up will be happening this year and a recent survey published by Plan B with 123,410 votes shows people believe bitcoin will reach $100K by Christmas 2021. Furthermore, a price model crafted by Will Clemente called “Illiquid Supply Floor” indicates that bitcoin prices may never drop below $39K again.
Plan B’s Bitcoin Price Survey Sees 100K Votes
Plan B is a pseudo-anonymous Twitter account (@100trillionusd) and the creator of the bitcoin price model called stock-to-flow (S2F). Plan B has stated in previous tweets that September bitcoin (BTC) prices may be lackluster, and this week he said “let’s skip September and go straight to October.”
He said this because in a tweet he wrote on June 20, Plan B expects bitcoin prices to follow this path: “Aug >47K, Sep >43K, Oct >63K, Nov >98K, Dec >135K.” So far, Plan B’s August bitcoin price prediction and even so far in September, has been on point.
On September 11, 2021, Plan B decided to do a Twitter survey as he has done on various occasions in the past. Plan B has 799.1K Twitter followers so his survey gets around on the social media platform. The survey he shared last Saturday asked the following question on Twitter:
Do you think bitcoin will reach $500K, $288K (S2FX model), $100K (S2F model), or will BTC stay below $100K… by Christmas 2021?
123,410 votes were cast in Plan B’s survey on Twitter and 45.7% believe it will reach $100K. Approximately 32.7% of those who voted think BTC will stay below $100K by Christmas 2021. 15.3% of the crowd suggest that they think $288K is possible and 6.3% believe that $500K per bitcoin could happen by the year’s end.
Will Clemente’s Model Suggest Bitcoin’s Price Floor Is $39K
In addition to Plan B’s recent survey, the lead insights analyst at Blockware Solutions, Will Clemente, tweeted about a price model called the “Illiquid Supply Floor.”
“Introducing: Illiquid Supply Floor,” Clemente tweeted on September 15. “This combines Glassnode’s illiquid supply data with Plan B’s traditional S2F model, creating a price floor based on Bitcoin’s real-time scarcity. Currently $39K,” Clemente added. He also thanked Matt Faltyn for helping him bring the model “to life.”
Chart shared on Twitter by the lead insights analyst at Blockware Solutions, Will Clemente.
Crypto entrepreneur Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano congratulated Clemente on his chart and said: “This is a banger. Nice work.” Meanwhile, others were not so nice and called the model “hopium” in response to Clemente’s chart.
“Combining old garbage with new garbage. Still garbage at the end of the day,” a critic tweeted. “Also, if bitcoin is so ‘scarce’ and due for a ‘supply shock’ then why has it not put in a new ATH in nearly 6 months? If it’s so rare, why has it been ranging between $30-50k for this long?”
What do you think about Plan B’s survey with 123K votes and the recent “Illiquid Supply Floor” model tweeted by Will Clemente? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.
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Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons, Will Clemente, Twitter, Plan B Survey,
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