Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dipped below $63,000 later on Oct. 21 as a standard correction cooled the market.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin battles for new support at old peakData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it came off all-time highs above $67,000 to hit lows of $62,860 on Bitstamp.The roughly 6% drop from its peak came as little surprise to seasoned traders, despite Bitcoin so far failing to create solid support at the site of its previous all-time high of $64,900.”Bitcoin is still undergoing this retest attempt,” popular trader Rekt Capital wrote in his latest update, suggesting that the old high could still flip to support.Others took the chance to poke fun at the jittery mood on social media, where various users were getting cold feet observing the retracement.It’s just a joke.Most of you will get liquidated on a 5% drop anyway so it won’t matter what happens after that.— NebraskanGooner (@nebraskangooner) October 21, 2021The return to near $60,000, now the top of a large buy wall, meanwhile served to flush out excessive optimism on derivatives markets.As Cointelegraph reported, funding rates had skyrocketed overnight, but were slowly returning to more sustainable levels at the time of writing.Sentiment showed prevailing “extreme greed” among market participants, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 84/100. Historical top scenarios have involved 95/100 or higher.Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of Oct. 21. Source: Alternative.meAltcoins stabilize with Ethereum, Solana leadingAltcoins presented a mixed but altogether more positive picture on the day.Related: Following Bitcoin’s all-time high, DeFi TVL hits a record high above $233BAfter losing out broadly against BTC, major altcoins were spared a comedown of their own, with Ether (ETH) still above $4,000. Solana (SOL) hit 12% daily gains.Only Binance Coin (BNB) saw any noticeable downwards movement, trading 4% lower over the past 24 hours.”Total altcoin market cap close to taking out its September high (and ATH). Did not do that in 2017 until mid-Nov,” renowned analyst TechDev noted about the altcoin situation on Wednesday. “Could signal some serious alt runs sooner than expected. Will keep close eye. Ethereum ain’t playin around this cycle.”ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Kraken). Source: TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) crashed to just $8,100 on Oct. 21 — but only if you were trading on Binance’s dedicated United States exchange, Binance U.S.On Thursday, Binance U.S. suddenly printed a one-minute candle which took BTC/USD from $65,815 to $8,200 — a drop of 87%.”Shouldn’t be happening”In what traders call a “scam wick,” the one-minute BTC/USD differed dramatically from other major exchanges, which logged a one-minute candle with a floor around $64,200.The phenomenon has occurred more frequently in recent days, with Bitstamp also seeing freak order book events. The scope of the Binance U.S. error, however, was in a league of its own, and did not go unnoticed by market participants.”Well done Binance U.S.,” popular Twitter trader Crypto Chase summarized.”Good thing Americans are forced on to these dogshit exchanges where they can get completely scammed on unreasonably thin books. This type of shit just shouldn’t be happening. It’s not fair that some get stopped out and some stay in, some get fills and some don’t.”BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingViewCrypto Chase referred to the implications sudden erratic price movements on exchanges, these serving to liquidate traders who should have retained their positions.The debacle was tinged with irony, coming just as Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, known as CZ, warned about incoming volatility.”Expect very high volatility in crypto over the next few months,” he tweeted on the day.Leverage builds in overly long marketMeanwhile, concerns were also mounting Thursday that leveraged traders had taken on more risk than they could chew.Related: Bitcoin futures ETF hits $1B AUM in a record-breaking two daysA look at funding rates across exchanges hinted at excessive optimism, with traders going long BTC en masse — a classic indicator of a correction.Funding rates had increased significantly in the hours after BTC/USD passed its recent all-time high and went on to hit $67,100.Bitcoin funding rates chart. Source: Bybt
Bitcoin (BTC) passed $66,000 again on Oct. 21 after fresh macro turbulence sparked a retest of previous all-time highs.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewEvergrande fails to hold Bitcoin bulls backData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD recovering from a dip to $64,000 overnight.The move had come in step with a comedown in stocks, which were reacting to renewed concerns over Chinese property giant Evergrande.Nonetheless, Bitcoin managed to preserve higher levels, resulting in only a brief trip below the $64,900 threshold, which had held as the BTC record since April this year.#BTC successfully retested the orange area as support to reach a new All Time HighNow $BTC is dipping to turn its previous old All Time High into support (blue)#Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/qJZnm8X387— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 21, 2021“Markets always go higher than the majority expects. Probably what will happen in coming months,” a still bullish Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized to Twitter followers.$75,000 next targetWednesday, Oct. 20, saw new all-time highs of over $67,000 after a squeeze took BTC/USD $3,000 higher.Related: Price analysis 10/20: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, SOL, DOT, DOGE, LUNA, UNIThe monthly candle for October, analysts noted, is already larger than the entire Bitcoin all-time high from December 2017.“BTC is testing its old ATH for support,” Dutch crypto consultancy and education platform Eight wrote in its latest update on the day. “If we bounce from here some levels to keep an eye on are around 75k, 87k, and 96k, derived from recent price action using the Fibonacci retracement tool.”BTC/USD chart with Fibonacci levels. Source: Eight/TwitterAs Cointelegraph reported, Fibonacci is responsible for long-term BTC price findings, which currently put the peak of this cycle’s bull run at as much as $300,000. The trough, by contrast, could be anywhere from $47,000 to $60,000 — still an order of magnitude higher than last cycle’s $3,100 floor.
Bitcoin (BTC) has hit a new all-time high in United States dollars as a long-awaited surge pushes BTC/USD into price discovery.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Coinbase). Source: TradingViewBitcoin back in price discoveryData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed Bitcoin breaching the $64,900 ceiling in place since April.On the second day of trading for the hugely popular ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, BTC/USD again surged ahead of the U.S. open — a practice that has characterized the pair in recent days.On social media, Bitcoin’s best-known names were celebrating.“The halls of eternity echo with the cries of those who sold their Bitcoin,” MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor summarized.New #bitcoin ATH pic.twitter.com/agaF0u8cS3— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 20, 2021This week has already seen all-time highs for Bitcoin against several major fiat currencies, including the euro.As Cointelegraph reported, expectations remain for even higher levels to hit in the coming weeks and months, these interspersed by brief corrections to establish new support levels.The highest estimates for the short term currently center around as much as $300,000 per Bitcoin.“Bitcoin season” in full swingVarious data supports the idea that Bitcoin’s time to shine will precede altcoins, which continued to suffer against BTC on the day.Related: BTC price is up 50% since China ‘selflessly’ banned Bitcoin miningWith Bitcoin’s market capitalization dominance at its highest since May — 47.4%, according to CoinMarketCap records — popular traders were already warning that now was not the time to focus on an altcoin-heavy portfolio.So many alt/btc pairs look like they want to break down $ETH / $BTC at dynamic long term support line$SOL looks like it’s in a bear flag. Many have made macro LL’sThis is great bc of the ability to compound riding BTC up to new ath then alts back up. 2 for the price of one pic.twitter.com/y3gcjkyWmA— Pentoshi Won’t Dm You. hates Dm’s. DM’s are scams (@Pentosh1) October 18, 2021
Estimates currently state that the first half of 2022 should produce a turnaround in altcoins’ fortunes.
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to beat its all-time highs on Oct. 20 — but a separate record kept bulls confident of a breakout.BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin hits new all-time high against euroData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $64,490 on Bitstamp overnight.While inches from matching April’s peak, the action nonetheless sealed Bitcoin’s highest-ever daily close — around $64,230.In several currencies, including the Japanese yen, Australian dollar and euro, new all-time highs were already in on Wednesday.BTC/EUR 1-week candle chart (Coinbase). Source: TradingViewFor popular trader Crypto Ed, it was time to reevaluate likely short-term targets.”Summary: at 40k I mentioned 73k as first target but I think we’re going higher and keep extending those waves. I think we even have a good chance we’re not going sub 60k for a while,” he tweeted.A worst-case scenario could involve a brief “spike” downwards to $58,000, but this would be followed by clear skies for “the coming weeks/ months,” he added.The bullish tone across the board follows a successful day for the first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, with $1 billion in volume and $550 million in assets under management after just a single trading session. #Bitcoin $BTC Futures Contracts Open Interest just reached an ATH of $817,605,927.21 on #BitfinexPrevious ATH of $816,194,977.96 was observed on 19 October 2021View metric:https://t.co/sX9wgOdDRb pic.twitter.com/ClLpHUMDTg— glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) October 20, 2021Correspondingly, Bitcoin futures open interest hit fresh all-time highs of $817.6 million, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode confirms.Where’s the FOMO?The atmosphere makes the comparative lack of mainstream interest in Bitcoin all the more unusual.Related: Bitcoin RSI strength suggests BTC price is still far from its cycle topBeyond institutional excitement, data shows that hardly anyone is following or checking on Bitcoin relative to earlier this year.As Cointelegraph reported, this has been the case for some time, but even a trip to the threshold of all-time highs has failed to upend the trend.Worldwide Google search interest in “Bitcoin.” Source: Google TrendsA normalized score from Google Trends put “Bitcoin” interest at 36 this week, relative to 100 in mid-May.
Bitcoin (BTC) hit $63,000 on Oct. 19 as the debut of the first regulated Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) saw solid uptake.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewETF launch sparks six-month BTC highsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting its highest levels since April 16 as the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF ($BITO) began trading on the New York Stock Exchange.BITO opened at just under $40, swiftly hitting local highs of $42.09 in price discovery before consolidating.The strength of the launch served to allay fears that the market would conversely fall into the United States open in what would constitute a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” event.Volatility was still rampant at the time of writing, however, with commentators waiting to see what would ultimately become of the ETF’s first few hours.The era of the Bitcoin ETF has arrived!— Dan Held (@danheld) October 19, 2021Responding to separate criticism of the first two ETFs to launch, both based on Bitcoin futures, Kraken growth lead Dan Held meanwhile argued that the same fears had surrounded the launch of those futures themselves in late 2017. Ultimately, they were unfounded.Grayscale formally “kicks off” GBTC ETF conversion oIn further ETF news, institutional investment giant Grayscale confirmed on Tuesday that it had applied to convert its flagship Bitcoin product to an ETF.Related: ‘All bears will die’ — Bitcoin metric prepares to flip green for the first time in 6 monthsThe Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC) would trade under the new ticker $BTC should it be approved.”From where we sit, we’ve never seen bigger maturity within the digital asset ecosystem, and we’re confident that this is the next step in the journey of GBTC’s lifecycle,” CEO Michael Sonnenshein said in video comments.
It’s been 150 days since China banned Bitcoin (BTC) mining — and BTC price action has only benefited as a result.Five months ago, China caused a considerable but not unsurprising stir by doubling down on its hostile environment policy toward cryptocurrency.Bitcoiners to China: Thanks for the banJust like every “ban” before it, China’s move against miners saw temporary price turbulence, matching the biggest physical upheaval in Bitcoin’s history.As miners powered down and relocated out of China, Bitcoin’s network hash rate fell 50%, with difficulty slowly adjusting for the changes in the months that followed.Since then, however, a powerful renaissance has occurred, and now the network and its security have practically erased any trace of China’s impact. BTC price action, meanwhil, shows a much clearer trend.“China banned BTC transactions and mining only 150 days ago,” analyst Willy Woo summarized about the episode.“Today the network is more decentralised than ever and price has risen +50% . Antifragile.”As Cointelegraph reported, anti-Bitcoin moves by Beijing have ironically led to price increases, not decreases, and 2021 has now proven itself no different.The hash rate data further shows how China’s absence has improved decentralization, dissolving a weak point that had characterized mining for years.Bitcoin hash rate distribution chart. Source: CBECIWoo had seen the potential pluses behind the mining ban before BTC/USD had even begun to recover, wryly calling China’s actions “selfless.”The United States, meanwhile, is now estimated to be the largest participant when it comes to the Bitcoin network hash rate.Miners hodl post-ChinaCurrent miner behavior underscores the long-term perspective taken by network participants since China exited.Related: All-time high weekly close — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this weekMiner outflows remain low despite BTC’s price nearing all-time highs, while their reserves are near historic lows, data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows.Bitcoin miner outflows chart. Source: CryptoQuantBoth miners and long-term hodlers alike are refusing to sell at current levels amid anticipation of new highs and a blow-off top of up to $300,000 for BTC/USD.
A “favorite” Bitcoin (BTC) price signal could be about to turn bullish — and upside has always resulted, data shows.As noted by podcast host Preston Pysh on Oct. 18, the Long-Term & Short-Term Holder Realized Price Ratio (LTHSTH-RPR) looks primed to print a bull flag.Chart hints at return of the bullsIt may sound wordy, but LTHSTH-RPR is one of the most accurate Bitcoin price indicators. Its creator, Bitcoin 2021 conference organizer Dylan LeClair, confirmed his own bullishness based on its readings in late September.“TLDR: The lower the Short-Term:Long-Term Realized Price Ratio goes the more bullish I will become,” he wrote in an explanatory Twitter thread. “In the end, all bears will die.”Bitcoin LTHSTH-RPR chart. Source: Preston Pysh/ TwitterNow, with the indicator trending down for several months, it is high time for a rebirth — and BTC/USD has always benefited as a result.Under the hood, LTHSTH-RPR shows the cost basis of long-term holders and short-term holders. A long-term holder is defined by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode as an address holdings coins which have not moved in at least 155 days.“When the STH:LTH Realized Price Ratio is increasing, this means that STH cost basis is increasing relative to LTH cost basis, and vis versa,” LeClair added.“BTC rises when the marginal seller is exhausted. This is why you see the cost basis of LTHs stay stagnant during explosive bull runs, while the cost basis of STHs (many of whom are new market participants) explode – there are simply not enough coins to go around.”So far, LTH cost basis has not been eclipsed by STH cost basis — when this happens, the current downtrend should end.”Up only” remains the narrativeAs Cointelegraph reported, LTHSTH-RPR is just one of a number of BTC price metrics to have buoyed the bulls in recent weeks.Related: All-time high weekly close — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this weekEverything from on-chain metrics to network fundamentals and even pure math suggests that further upside is imminent for Bitcoin — widely expected from Q4 of the year after a halving event.Nonetheless, analysts are already monitoring the market for an exit. The impact of this week’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) launches is also not anticipated to be a market mover in the short term.
Bitcoin (BTC) simply refuses to die this week as a dip below $60,000 barely lasts an hour and bears are burned yet again.After a fairly calm weekend, Sunday saw a typical drawdown before a dramatic resurgence took place for BTC/USD just an hour later.With that, Bitcoin has preserved not only its bullish trajectory but has also sealed its highest weekly close ever — around $61,500.As the market braces for a possible start of trading for the United States’ first Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), volatility is all but guaranteed, say analysts.Cointelegraph takes a look at five things to consider in the week that BTC/USD squares up to all-time highs and institutional access takes a historic leap forward.Bitcoin gives less than an hour to “buy the dip”Just when it seemed that the run to all-time highs had hit a stumbling block, Bitcoin surprised everyone yet again overnight.After losing $60,000 late Sunday, bulls had no time for BTC price weakness, and before BTC/USD had even hit $59,000, they embarked on an aggressive buying spree.Hours later, the pair was back above not only $60,000, but $62,000 — and has stayed there at the time of writing.The episode did not even impact Bitcoin’s weekly close, which despite volatility still came in as the highest of all time — around $61,500.“The historic Weekly Close now means BTC is well-positioned for further upside,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital summarized on Monday.He added that the next phase of BTC price action will be “more volatile” than what has come before, in line with previous bull market years 2013 and 2017.BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewAs various analysts celebrate the weekly close milestone, meanwhile, the upcoming U.S. market open could also provide excitement.Monday could see the launch of the first-ever Bitcoin ETF products with the blessing of U.S. regulators, this coming as BTC/USD is less than $3,000 from new all-time highs.On the topic of derivatives, funding rates across exchanges have also cooled since last week, providing relief for those concerned about unsustainable upside leading to a blow-off top.Bitcoin funding rates chart. Source: BybtETFs are ‘go,’ but not for everyoneLove it or hate it by now, this week is all about the Bitcoin ETF.As rumors began circulating about a U.S. regulatory green light late last week, Bitcoin price action heated up — and this week looks set to continue the trend.After years of rejections, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is preparing to witness the launch of two ETF products both based on CME Group Bitcoin futures.These precede a lengthy decision-making process which begins next month concerning physical Bitcoin ETFs — those with actual BTC as their underlying asset and which form the topic of real interest for analysts.There is no guarantee that those traditional ETFs will get approved, and concerns already abound that the market may end up disappointed once more.With multiple applications to be decided on, however, there remains six months for a breakthrough from the SEC.Bitcoin ETF approval timeline. Source: Arcane ResearchOptimism that the tide will turn in the crypto industry’s favor continues this week, as Grayscale confirms that it will apply to convert its flagship Bitcoin fund product to an ETF.stay tuned— Barry Silbert (@BarrySilbert) October 17, 2021Grayscale’s fund, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), has been a talking point in itself in recent weeks, trading at an increasing discount to spot BTC amid fears that institutional clients are voting with their feet in the run-up to the ETF launch.The former’s higher fees is one example of the competitive advantage debate, while some have noted that futures-based ETFs will not function as a suitable alternative by definition.This chart shows why you’re better off buying #Bitcoin than Bitcoin Future ETF. For investors, new Bitcoin ETFs might be more costly than purchasing cryptocurrency directly. Bitcoin Future has underperformed by 30ppts since start of Bitcoin Future in 2017. https://t.co/1ZnVBJQlGa pic.twitter.com/oXrZ95Wsmg— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 17, 2021
“To begin with, most institutional players have direct access to CME futures. Typically, the main reason they would choose to trade ETFs instead of futures would be to avoid tracking error (against spot price) from futures roll costs or price deviations from to contango or backwardation,” crypto trading firm QCP Capital added in a circular to Telegram channel subscribers Friday.“As such, having the ETF based on CME futures defeats the fundamental advantage of ETFs; to track spot price as closely as possible.”Difficulty set for 7th straight increaseBitcoin network fundamentals continue to impress this week, and difficulty is leading the pack.What is arguably Bitcoin’s most essential feature is going from strength to strength, and on Tuesday is set to seal a seventh consecutive increase. The last time that occurred was in 2019.That increase will take difficulty back above 20 trillion for the first time since June.Bitcoin 7-day average difficulty chart. Source: BlockchainThis comes despite some volatility in hash rate, with estimates now back down to 123 exahashes per second (EH/s), having reached in excess of 140 EH/s this month.With the overall uptrend still intact, however, concerns are few and far between amid news that the U.S. now provides a home for the lion’s share of Bitcoin mining power.Supply shock predicts “good year” in 2022While Bitcoin price forecasts focus on what might be possible in Q4 this year, some are already looking further afield — and using data to arrive at even more bullish conclusions.One analyst painting a rosy picture for 2022 is Willy Woo, creator of data resource Woobull and well known for his Bitcoin market cycle research.Over the weekend, Woo highlighted Bitcoin’s increasing scarcity as likely fuel for a sustained price squeeze.Historically, he noted, decreasing supply combined with more of that supply staying in the hands of hodlers with no plans to sell creates a powerful bull signal.His metric, “Long Term Holder Supply Shock,” clearly shows such a scenario playing out multiple times over Bitcoin’s history.“The technical name for this chart is ‘2022 is gonna be a good year,’” he summarized to Twitter followers.Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply Shock chart. Source: Willy Woo/ TwitterAs Cointelegraph reported, long-term holders already control a near record proportion of the BTC supply, leading to expectations that the fight over the remaining coins will be more heated than ever.This should be assisted when a physical ETF is approved, something which could happen as soon as November and continue for several months.The BTC balance across major exchanges tracked by CryptoQuant, meanwhile, has settled at just under 2.4 million BTC after a precipitous fall in September.The next Bitcoin bear market will comeWith so much excitement about the possible Bitcoin price top this year and just how high it could be, some analysts are already turning their attention to the flipside — the bear market.Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ETH, SOL, MATIC, FTMHistorically, nothing goes up in a straight line, and Bitcoin is no exception. Each halving cycle has seen a price peak the year after the block subsidy halving, followed by a mid-cycle price bottom.This cycle, several well-known market participants claim, will be no different.As such, a price peak will be followed by an extended comedown, in line with both 2014 and 2018.For popular Twitter analyst TechDev, this floor should nonetheless be an order of magnitude higher than the last — as much as $60,000 — but the process should already begin before 2021 is over.“I want a lengthened cycle. Who doesn’t? But nothing I’ve seen macro PA-wise suggests it will happen,” he warned followers at the weekend. “Watch your indicators. 2-week RSI channel, RVI 92-93. If they’re hit, I’m out. Ignore them in hopes of a new paradigm and you’re likely to get dumped on by those who don’t.”Out of several accompanying charts, one neatly showed how Bitcoin’s relative strength index on two-week timeframes neatly captured each peak.BTC/USD annotated chart with RSI peaks highlighted. Source: TechDev/ TwitterFellow Twitter personality Rekt Capital likewise took the opportunity to remind followers and subscribers of the need to time profit-taking.“People think BTC will never see another -80% Bear Market because it is now mainstream & too mature of an asset,” he argued. “Let’s not forget there was a -53% correction just months ago. Average Bear Market is -84.5% deep. It’s very likely one will occur after this Bull Market.”The weekend nonetheless produced an optimistic forecast for the bear market, with Dan Morehead, chief executive at Pantera Capital, claiming the trough would be “shallower” than the others.As Cointelegraph reported, other measures are eyeing the good times to continue into 2022, even for Bitcoin. Earlier this month, PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow-based Bitcoin price forecasting models, proclaimed that the bull run has at least six months left to run.